Deluge Round Two

So far, we're having an extremely typical November with a frontal system approaching the coast every few days, with gray and unsettled conditions between. Sunny breaks are few and far between these days.

Beginning tonight, rain will begin to fall this evening, gradually increasing in intensity until peaking tomorrow morning.

Like last Saturday's storm the rainfall component will play a bigger role and cause more headaches in the Lower Mainland and around the North Shore, with the strongest winds staying south in Washington State and over Juan de Fuca Strait. Our neighbours to the south have already issued wind advisories for this system.

Strong winds will also remain well offshore on the backside of the low pressure system as it fills and approaches the coastline. There's also the possibility of storm force winds out in the Pacific Ocean.

Models are beginning to get a better grasp on where the surface low and associated frontal system will make landfall and shows the system will rapidly fill as it approaches the western entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca : 

12Z model tracks.jpg

It also appears that two streams of moisture will collide over the south coast late this evening and overnight, creating a little extra rainfall enhancement, one with the initial warm front and another with the low pressure's associated cold front sweeping through tomorrow.

One stream does have some sub-tropical moisture (an almost atmospheric river type setup), so look out for some large puddles on the street for your morning commute, in part because your neighbour has failed to clear their respective storm drains.

As a precaution maybe consider leaving a few minutes early for work. 

 High Resolution (2.5km) Canadian LAM weather model 24hr rainfall

High Resolution (2.5km) Canadian LAM weather model 24hr rainfall

Projected Rainfall Amounts

  • YVR: 30-50 mm
  • North Shore: 50 mm+  

Wind Gusts: Up to 50-60 km/hr early afternoon at exposed coastal regions are possible with higher winds over open water. The higher gusts will most likely be in the Strait of Juan De Fuca and Puget Sound area (i.e. south of us).

And finally, to make the skiers and mountaineers drool with some 24 hour snowfall totals for several of the local mountains will be 30+ cm (pink shade) above 1500 m.

ECMWF snowfall.png

That's all for now.  



International weather story: 

The Philippines are facing an extremely dangerous situation the next 48 hours and beyond due to a super typhoon projected to impact the region.

A landfall is imminent in the province of Samar with maximum winds right now estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center are at above 260 km/hr+ with some meteorologists claiming this storm is at theoretical peak intensity for a typhoon.

Manila, the capital will avoid the brunt of the storm, but the city will still face strong damaging winds (100 km/hr+) and heavy rainfall capable of flooding and infrastructure damage.

For a more comprehensive article on Super Typhoon Haiyan check out the Washington Post and their in-depth weather blog article.