A Toast to a Fresh Month

Ohhhhh...You thought I meant toast, as in cheers. Awkward. I think we should celebrate with toast printed with today's weather forecast instead -- maybe one with some snowflakes for Mt. Washington and Mt. Cain Prototype by: Nathan Brunstein 

Ohhhhh...You thought I meant toast, as in cheers. Awkward. I think we should celebrate with toast printed with today's weather forecast instead -- maybe one with some snowflakes for Mt. Washington and Mt. Cain Prototype by: Nathan Brunstein 

As January winds down in the weather department, we can reflect at what a roller coaster of a month it really was. Early in January, the ski hills were blessed with heavy mountain snows, which seemed to be the turning point for many local ski hills.

Lately, the return of #fogcouver, and record breaking temperatures in Alaska have been highlights, but the lack of snow still takes the cake for top story.  

15 days of dry, tranquil weather ended yesterday, with #YVR picking up its first significant amount of precipitation in over two weeks.

What? Rain in January? 

Many respected meteorologists in the industry are hinting and throwing confidence behind a cooler and more seasonal (in terms of precipitation) February. It's tough to argue with their analysis and thoughts, because I see it too. 

Unfortunately, Mt. Washington on Vancouver Island had to close its hills after being open for a few weeks this month. Such a disappointment, but I have medium to high confidence the resort will open it's slopes again by the second or third week in February.

To give a better representation of the lack of snow on Vancouver Island I have the latest snowpack data, showing parts of Vancouver Island are less than 20% of normal snowpack.

Such an unprecedented drought over on Vancouver Island.

Current Snow Depth.jpg

But we all must remember something.

Ski season typically goes until the end of April and sometimes well into May depending on the type of year, with many slopes not hitting their peak snow base until closer to the end of March or early April

I'll have a more in-depth look at some long range forecasts (7-14 days) next post, and if you still haven't entered the contest you have a little over 24 hours to do so. Thank you to the dozens of people who've put there entry in, and I'll have graphs available on February 1st so show the array of guesses per city. 

Since the lack of snow is a bit of a depressing thought, let's have a little fun.

Snow chances in Vancouver?

Always a fun, popular game. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) crew has an addicting probability tool that uses GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) data to calculate certain weather parameters in the future and the corresponding chance of that forecast verifying.

Looking into the crystal ball it pulls out this:

10%.....10%....10%

graph (1).png

#50shadesofVan