A Pacific Punch: Heavy Rains, Winds, and Long-Range Ana Tracking

Simulated composite reflectivity (HRRR) for the Lower Mainland. Popcorn power showers indeed Monday night

Simulated composite reflectivity (HRRR) for the Lower Mainland. Popcorn power showers indeed Monday night

Currently some power showers are moving through the region (Monday evening), via moist unstable SW flow. The amount of convective available potential energy (think fuel) is unusually high for this regions, so short-lived down bursts heavy rains and isolated lightning can be expected this evening.

Pro tip: Unclog your storm drains

Heavy rains are forecasted beginning tomorrow night and the GFS has finally found some consistency, as talked about last blog

Below, the image looks like a complicated game of Tetris or Jenga, but don't fret -- Less swings from run to run (although one thing to take note, the heaviest precipitation has moved about 6 hours ahead, according to the GFS)

Heaviest rains Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon Hours, which is further intensified by a rapidly developing surface low SW of Vancouver Island

Heaviest rains Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon Hours, which is further intensified by a rapidly developing surface low SW of Vancouver Island

Wind Event Tuesday Evening

The NAM model has been picking up on this compact run for several days now, and the other global models are also in some sort of agreement. Winds will begin to pick up for coastal regions (highlighted in orange around dinner time, and peak before midnight (PST).

  • Expected wind gusts 60-80 km/hr in the regions shaded in Orange
  • Localized power outages possible for the portions of the Gulf Islands 
LAM-West 18Z Run

LAM-West 18Z Run

See the symbol with a little triangle on the end of it? that's a wind barb. And one of those triangles denotes wind speeds in excess of 50 knots. Typically those wind speeds are found at higher parts of the atmosphere, but it's possible some of those could mix down to the surface tomorrow evening, over the water

See the symbol with a little triangle on the end of it? that's a wind barb. And one of those triangles denotes wind speeds in excess of 50 knots. Typically those wind speeds are found at higher parts of the atmosphere, but it's possible some of those could mix down to the surface tomorrow evening, over the water

LONG RANGER

Q: Where in the world will Hurricane Ana end up.

Ex-Hurricane Ana already has a fairly strong single in the NAEF system (2nd black boxes) -- only time will tell

Ex-Hurricane Ana already has a fairly strong single in the NAEF system (2nd black boxes) -- only time will tell

A: Ensembles and deterministic models are both picking up on the remnants of Hurricane Ana, as she recurves around a ridge of high pressure and impacts the BC coast early next week. Way too early to indicate what may happen...

 

Ana, will be able to sustain herself and her tropical characteristics as long as the system remains over temperatures in excess of 26C or so, so by next weekend the system will undergo transition to a mid-latitude cyclone north of 35 degrees latitude

I mentioned the global models were hinting at a significant windstorm with Ana, but we're not at place in forecasting science where a model run 7 days into the future produces very reliable results. This can only be treated as a possible solution in myriad of other potential outcomes.

So to reiterate, very low confidence right now. 

Ana, is that you?

That's all for now. Don't forget, you can always reach me on Twitter @50shadesofvan and use the hashtag #BCstorm. The point of this blog as always been about education and outreach, so don't be shy.

Tune into the weather Network as we'll also be tracking national stories such as a possible nor'easter for Atlantic Canada mid-week.