As Ana continues to trudge north through the Central Pacific Hurricane Basin (Right: Black Circle), I wanted to dig up some past storms to use as some analogs to help predict what may happen over the next week.
Only one somewhat similar analog appeared after searching the historical storm database by NOAA and it revealed that destructive hurricane Iniki in 1992 is one of the only hurricanes that is remotely close to what Ana is attempting to accomplish during this week. It's also probable that Ana will be trekking over areas that have seen very little tropical activity since records have been kept.
I find it quite comical and informative to contrast two hurricane basins, and the differences in activity — be warned, it's quite jaw-dropping:
To get a better idea where Ana is anticipated to end up, let's consult the experts at the National Hurricane Center:
Another common forecasting technique employs using individual ensemble members to help come up with a consensus; consequently, they indicate there's a very real possibility that the coast of BC will be affected by the remnants of Ana as early as next Monday.
But, as you can see below, there's a lot of uncertainty with regards to an exact track. One similarity worth noting: All models favor a specific re-curve (see figure 5) that may threaten the BC coast by hour 168. It's possible Ana will strengthen and regain hurricane status over the next 72 hours, which is being hinted at by the various hurricane models below:
Along with a track map forecast produced by the hurricane models, there's also a product that conveys the forecasted intensity which is also to be interpreted by expert forecasters to come up with an intensity official intensity forecast, as graphed in figure 6.
Lastly, checkout out the super-ensemble the signal of Ex-Ana is alive and well. The deterministic European global model is currently an outlier tracking the cyclone into the Gulf of Alaska by day 7.