The projected path looks to bisect Puget Sound Saturday evening, although the threat of strong winds has diminished, heavy rains are still possible with this track. The heaviest precipitation will more than likely fall west of this track along southern Vancouver Island, the Sunshine Coast, and the Lower Mainland (including the North Shore).
The swath of heaviest rains (modelled below by the CMC GEM, shows the heaviest axis of precipitation along the occluded front, cutting through the lower half of Vancouver Island and extending up into the Sunshine Coast and Howe Sound.
- According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center some additional strengthening is probable the next 48 hours (very slim chance Ana could regain hurricane status)
- UPDATE: AS OF 11 am HSD NHC has increased intensity to 55 knots (~100 km/hr sustained winds with gusts to 120 km/hr)
- Tropical storm force winds extend out approximately 150 km from the center of the cyclone
- Models and guidance now hinting that Ana will remain it's own system rather than being absorbed by a northern latitude cyclone (Canadian Guidance is the exception).
- No indication as of now this storm will be as severe as the Hanukkah Eve Wind Storm of December 2006. There's been some comparisons on social media and that was a very special circumstance that brought 1:50 year winds and exceptionally strong pressure gradients to portions of the Lower Mainland and Washington State
When Ana's two week journey comes to a close, it will more than likely arrive in BC, as a system modelled like the one below:
Looking at the wind gusts plotted above, the areas of strongest winds follow the vigorous fronts that will develop when Ana turns post-tropical and arrives on the B.C coast as a mature storm -- The storm will rapidly fill once it heads inland.
- Greatest threats include SE gales in the Strait of Georgia and storm force winds for western portions of Vancouver Island
- Heavy rains and initial heavy mountain snows before the passage of the warm front Tuesday afternoon which will change precipitation from snow to rain