*Saturday Storm Update*

It's a lock, or close to it. All major deterministic global models have a landfall somewhere along Washington's coast, which will protect Vancouver from the strongest winds. 

It's a lock, or close to it. All major deterministic global models have a landfall somewhere along Washington's coast, which will protect Vancouver from the strongest winds. 

The projected path looks to bisect Puget Sound Saturday evening, although the threat of strong winds has diminished, heavy rains are still possible with this track. The heaviest precipitation will more than likely fall west of this track along southern Vancouver Island, the Sunshine Coast, and the Lower Mainland (including the North Shore). 

The swath of heaviest rains (modelled below by the CMC GEM, shows the heaviest axis of precipitation along the occluded front, cutting through the lower half of Vancouver Island and extending up into the Sunshine Coast and Howe Sound. 

 

The majority of the rain will fall between Saturday morning  and Saturday evening; subsequently, this moderate rain will fall during a relatively short period of time. Pooling on certain flood prone roadways will be likely, especially if storm drains have not been properly cleared

The majority of the rain will fall between Saturday morning  and Saturday evening; subsequently, this moderate rain will fall during a relatively short period of time. Pooling on certain flood prone roadways will be likely, especially if storm drains have not been properly cleared

By Saturday evening as the low passes to the SW, breezy NW winds will pick up along the exposed western facing beaches with the passage of the front. Highest gusts will likely remain under 50-60 km/hr though, as you'll notice abrupt drying after the evening commute

By Saturday evening as the low passes to the SW, breezy NW winds will pick up along the exposed western facing beaches with the passage of the front. Highest gusts will likely remain under 50-60 km/hr though, as you'll notice abrupt drying after the evening commute

Ana Update

  • According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center some additional strengthening is probable the next 48 hours (very slim chance Ana could regain hurricane status)
    • UPDATE: AS OF 11 am HSD NHC has increased intensity to 55 knots (~100 km/hr sustained winds with gusts to 120 km/hr)
  • Tropical storm force winds extend out approximately 150 km from the center of the cyclone 
  • Models and guidance now hinting that Ana will remain it's own system rather than being absorbed by a northern latitude cyclone (Canadian Guidance is the exception). 
  • No indication as of now this storm will be as severe as the Hanukkah Eve Wind Storm of December 2006. There's been some comparisons on social media and that was a very special circumstance that brought 1:50 year winds and exceptionally strong pressure gradients to portions of the Lower Mainland and Washington State
Yes, that's some slight increase in intensity forecasted over the next 36 hours, before the inevitable transition to an extratropical system

Yes, that's some slight increase in intensity forecasted over the next 36 hours, before the inevitable transition to an extratropical system

When Ana's two week journey comes to a close, it will more than likely arrive in BC, as a system modelled like the one below:

The windfield for Monday evening suggests that Ex-Ana is a mature/filling cyclone with a well defined occluded front (typically where the strongest winds are located). Folks this is often the case: Pacific storms often come to the Pacific Northwest to die rather than mature

The windfield for Monday evening suggests that Ex-Ana is a mature/filling cyclone with a well defined occluded front (typically where the strongest winds are located). Folks this is often the case: Pacific storms often come to the Pacific Northwest to die rather than mature

Looking at the wind gusts plotted above, the areas of strongest winds follow the vigorous fronts that will develop when Ana turns post-tropical and arrives on the B.C coast as a mature storm -- The storm will rapidly fill once it heads inland.

  • Greatest threats include SE gales in the Strait of Georgia and storm force winds for western portions of Vancouver Island
  • Heavy rains and initial heavy mountain snows before the passage of the warm front Tuesday afternoon which will change precipitation from snow to rain 

#50ShadesofVan