Powerful Pacific Low Update

Model simulation of the powerful low making landfall this evening in Washington State, a track known for producing damaging winds south of the border

Model simulation of the powerful low making landfall this evening in Washington State, a track known for producing damaging winds south of the border

Quick update on the wind impact for this evening for Southern BC, using one of the most advanced weather models available at this time.

I present to you  -- the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model which is now fully operational through the NWS, and it will help us understand the impending wind event a little better 

  • By about 11Z-00Z (4 to 5PM PDT), a potent low will make landfall along the Washington coast at around 987 mb. Most of the strongest winds at this point are confined to Oregon (likely damaging)
  • By 8 or 9 PM  this evening, the low weakens to ~989mb and has moved NE. The westerly surge of wind has begun down both straits (Strait of Georgia upper left, Strait of Juan de Fuca middle left)
  • Strongest winds starting to build into Puget Sound (Tacoma then Seattle)
  • Low continues to fill as it passes through Canadian customs and now winds are REALLY starting to pick up in the Strait of Juan de Fuca including exposed areas around Victoria (Sooke) by about 9 or 10 PM
  • Strongest winds likely over Puget Sound at this time
  • Winds will likely reach their peak in Juan de Fuca at around 10 or 11 PM (see below) an hour or two before reaching their peak in Georgia Strait.
  • HRRR is showing an incredible sustained wind speed of 53 knots. Wind gusts could approach 100 km/hr for portions of Strait Juan de Fuca (less for Victoria)
  • Winds will likely peak for #YVR just after midnight, and the HRRR is showing sustained winds in Georgia Strait approaching 30 knots or 50 km/hr, which is consistent with other guidance. Gusts could potentially reach 70 km/hr along exposed coastal regions through the overnight, increasing the threat of power cuts.
Areas shaded in Purple are most vulnerable to the westerly surge (gap wind event) forecasted for this evening

Areas shaded in Purple are most vulnerable to the westerly surge (gap wind event) forecasted for this evening

Stay safe and report adverse weather to #BCstorm

#50shadesofVan