A Pattern Change: The Claw Hand, -30°C Wind Chill, and Static Electricity

Well, it's been quite the stretch  southern Vancouver Island is still recovering from yesterday's damaging wind event with over 10,000 outages still being reported as of Friday morning.

But, here's a stat that will blow YOUR mind:

Through October 10-November 7th, Vancouver recorded rain on every single day, except one.

The Claw Hand (tongue-in-cheek obviously)

The Claw Hand (tongue-in-cheek obviously)

A month of rain, folks  Every. Single. Day.

Many hospitals around the Lower Mainland have seen an influx of patients complaining of rigid hands (AKA claw hand) from the semi-permanent umbrella carrying position, similar to what tree-planter's face during the hot summer months in the mountainous regions of B.C. 

You deserve a break.

Yes, you.   

Medium range computer model guidance is now indicating a sustained period of dry weather for the South Coast, the driest stretch since early October compliments of our friend the Omega Block  a pattern amplified by ex-typhoon Nuri.

GFS 500mb height anomaly for Canada showing above normal heights for portions of B.C (ridging), contrasted by toughing in the East (blue). 

GFS 500mb height anomaly for Canada showing above normal heights for portions of B.C (ridging), contrasted by toughing in the East (blue). 

A lot of energy and cool temperatures ride down the backside of the omega blocking pattern bringing downright frigid temperatures to Alberta for early next week. 

Lots of cold air advection on the back of this ridge, but have no fear B.C., the Rocky Mountains will prevent most of the coolest air from penetrating into B.C. (particularly the coastal regions)

Lots of cold air advection on the back of this ridge, but have no fear B.C., the Rocky Mountains will prevent most of the coolest air from penetrating into B.C. (particularly the coastal regions)

Lately, models have been trending the cooler modified arctic air a little further west, which will bring the coolest temperatures of the season to us, Van. 

But have no fear, take a look at the wind chills forecasted for Central Alberta for Tuesday morning, compared to tropical coastal sections of British Columbia.

Yes, it's likely parts of Alberta will be graced with their first -30°C wind chills of the season... 

One word: FRIGID

Map is a GFS model output for wind chill values for early Tuesday morning...

Map is a GFS model output for wind chill values for early Tuesday morning...

Take a look at the latest WRF-GFS 925 mb temps (~600 meter elevation) and note the coolest temperatures do stay east of the Rockies (pinks).

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN?!  

Dry, gusty easterly offshore flow is likely to bring below normal temperatures to the coast with many cities finally receiving there first freezing temperatures (at night) with lower dew points as well.

Static Electricity?

Van, you might even notice an increase of electric shocks as the dew points fall because dry air can act as an excellent insulator adding to the risk of static electric shocks.

A shocking forecast, indeed. 

Latest GFS run indicates that places like YVR will see their first frost of the season with lows fluctuating between 0-3C for Tues-Thursday next week and highs in the single digits. Note: the lack of precipitation after the weak system is forecasted to slide down the coast on Sunday. 

Latest GFS run indicates that places like YVR will see their first frost of the season with lows fluctuating between 0-3C for Tues-Thursday next week and highs in the single digits.

Note: the lack of precipitation after the weak system is forecasted to slide down the coast on Sunday. 

The lack of a first freeze for the majority of the coast is a little abnormal I'll admit, especially for the eastern Fraser Valley. Abbotsford (YXX) typically sees it's first frost by the middle of October and the city still has not recorded a sub-freezing temperature.

Unbelievable.  

This will change next week. There's also some uncertainty when the upper level ridge will break down and systems will undercut the ridge, but the majority of next week looks dry. I'm hopeful this won't turn into the situation we were faced with last year, where the ridiculous resilient upper level ridge obliterated most of the ski season. 

Anyway, enjoy the first real fall-like air mass next week, Van!