72 Hour Outlook: Stormy, Stormier, Stormiest?

GIF provided by NOAA showing 500 mb heights with precipitation (heaviest greens and yellows!) for the next three days. Active weather is an understatement. Closed height contours on the 500 mb map, indicate very strong and mature low pressure systems

GIF provided by NOAA showing 500 mb heights with precipitation (heaviest greens and yellows!) for the next three days. Active weather is an understatement. Closed height contours on the 500 mb map, indicate very strong and mature low pressure systems

We're in the middle of February and about to enter the most active weather stretch we've had since last winter with significant low pressure systems lining up one after another.

So I heard it snowed on Mt. Washington?

What you've seen so far is an appetizer compared to what's on the menu for the next 3-5 days. 

But first, I want to try to explain where the storms are coming from, and where the storm breeding ground is located

This is for anyone who was a little curious where storms...you know...did their dirty work.

Gross.

Water Vapor.gif

It's almost like the resilient North Pacific ridge never existed!

It's now been replaced with a deep, healthy trough. The conveyor belt of storms is lining up, baby. Be careful what you wished for.

Perfect recipe for Strong SE winds for northern Vancouver Island this evening with the associated low pressure system curving northward to Haida Gwaii

Perfect recipe for Strong SE winds for northern Vancouver Island this evening with the associated low pressure system curving northward to Haida Gwaii

Storm 1: 

Time: Tonight- Friday AM

Impacts:

  • Strong SE winds for northern Vancouver Island (50 Knot gusts possible in Georgia Strait)
  • Heavy rains with associated frontal system. Some rainfall totals will exceed 20 mm in a six hour period for western Vancouver Island
  • Heavy mountain snows (20-30 cm+)
Two storm total looks to be over 60 cm+ for the local ski hills, which will help cover up the remaining rocks and twigs on the main trails

Two storm total looks to be over 60 cm+ for the local ski hills, which will help cover up the remaining rocks and twigs on the main trails

Storm 2:

Time Frame: Saturday

Impacts

  • Yet again strong SE winds
    • possible wind warnings
  • Heavy lowland rains
  • Heavy Mountain snows (20-30 cm+)
  • MM5- NAM model has a 977 mb low crossing Vncouver Island Saturday evening. This has to be watched closely next couple model runs to see if other models follow suit
The WRF-GFS says it's raining cats and dogs on Sunday and Monday with well over 60 mm of precip and close to 100 mm for higher elevations

The WRF-GFS says it's raining cats and dogs on Sunday and Monday with well over 60 mm of precip and close to 100 mm for higher elevations

Storm 3: The Grand Finale

Time: Sunday AM-Monday AM

Impacts

  • Mountain snow: Holy *&#@. I don't want to put out a number yet, but it will impress you. I promise
  • Rain: 50 mm + for the lowlands with 100 + mm possible for the North Shore mountains
  • Wind ++
    • More details in a later post

And then...a cooling trend is in the forecast for next week, which will bring lowering snow levels and the possibility of bringing some wet snow down to sea level, especially for northern sections of Vancouver Island and the Sunshine Coast.

#50ShadesofVan