Another Brush With Lowland Snow On Tap?

HRRR radar simulation for 10pm tonight. Cold rain for vancouver, temps 3-5C. Mixing at higher elevations possible

HRRR radar simulation for 10pm tonight. Cold rain for vancouver, temps 3-5C. Mixing at higher elevations possible

Don't press the #snOMG panic button for tonight YVR... Tonight will most likely be a rain event, with the exception of some wet snow in the highest suburbs of the North Shore above 150-200 metres in elevation. 

Similar tale for Vancouver Island. Rain showers to start shortly with the impending warm front, that will be cold rain until you're a couple hundred metres above sea level.

Quite typical with the NW flow.

Speaking of freezing level, the NAM model suggests that by the weekend the freezing level will once again be close to sea level.

There might be a little bit of a cool bias, as latest NAM runs showed 850 hpa temps close to -10 -- but definitely cold enough to support snow. 

NAM modelled freezing level for the next 96 hours (spotwx)

NAM modelled freezing level for the next 96 hours (spotwx)

Ingredient one for YVR snow met. Cool temps and wet bulb freezing level below zero as early as Friday morning... along with a couple other thickness parameters 1000-500 thickness and 1000-850 thickness both look to support snow close to sea level briefly on the weekend.

Ingredient 2: The moisture? 

As I'm writing model runs are trickling in and I'm combing over the data, trying to draw any sort of consensus about our snow chances this weekend...

If this is a poker game...the WRF-GFS went ALL IN with this mornings run...

Things got a little crazy...

If verified: widespread 15-20 cm on East Vancouver Island with 15 cm + at YVR..

If verified: widespread 15-20 cm on East Vancouver Island with 15 cm + at YVR..

Now, the latest run of the WRF-GFS tonight is running a little bit behind schedule, but I've had a peek at the GFS operational...

It continues to hint at moisture( possibly a bit further west), but it all depends on if/where the upper level trough forms in Central BC and associated sfc low forms.

It's a little scary that the mesoscale GFS forecast is such heavy snow within about 100 hours...It's either going to look like a genius if verifies, or lose a little bit of credibility. At the time of writing, no other global models are agreeing with this somewhat outlandish solution.

The Questionable low, circled in yellow that is slated to develop (according to this model in less than 72 hours. An upper level trough is also forecast to slide down from Central BC...

The Questionable low, circled in yellow that is slated to develop (according to this model in less than 72 hours. An upper level trough is also forecast to slide down from Central BC...

The WRF-GFS had problems with the Portland/Seattle snow a couple weeks ago, as discussed by Cliff Mass, so at this point, it's almost impossible to say what's going to happen. Models have not agreed on a solution, but unfortunately for snow lovers, I have to throw the above solution out...for now.

Ridging looks to return early next week, higher confidence, which will leave the BC coast high and dry for a period of 3-5 days, before the storm train continues.

In summary, low confidence for the weather this Saturday and Sunday.

Stay Tuned :)

#50ShadesofVan