Happy Spring (For BC, Anyway)!

Happy Spring, where the sun is directly overhead at  the equator, and will begin to migrate north and be directly overhead the Tropic of Cancer by June 21st 2014.  

But does this technicality spring, bring with it abudance of warmth to YVR?

Let's look at the facts through the NAEFS:

NAEFS.png

Geopotential height at 500 mb can tell us a whole lot about the state of the atmosphere and weather conditions at the surface, and it's one of the most important weather maps available to meteorologists. 

This upcoming pattern will be VERY ideal for spring skiing, and will solidify our snowpack well into April. 

How will the rest of Canada fair?

Not Good -- The fierce winter continues, at least for another week.

NAEFS forecast probabilities of temperatures above/below normal for the last week in March. Ontario has a 90%+ off seeing below normal temperatures

NAEFS forecast probabilities of temperatures above/below normal for the last week in March. Ontario has a 90%+ off seeing below normal temperatures

There is some possibility that Great Lakes ice intent may once again begin to increase as we head into April. 850hpa temperatures up to 20C below normal for the end of March. Yikes!

There is some possibility that Great Lakes ice intent may once again begin to increase as we head into April. 850hpa temperatures up to 20C below normal for the end of March. Yikes!

If you pay close attention this afternoon, you might see a few towering cumulus clouds hugging up along the North Shore Mountains. Send me a couple photos if you see any!

The atmosphere is a little unstable at the surface, so a few heavy showers may develop near the North Shore today. 

SBCAPE values of about 100 this afternoon according to the GFS model

SBCAPE values of about 100 this afternoon according to the GFS model

SBCAPE: Is the convective available potential energy available to an air parcel that must originate from the surface and lifted to the level of free convection. to its level of free convection.

The higher this value, the greater the instability. This is simplified, of course.

There you go.

One of the many parameters used in analysing instability, but CAPE has it's drawbacks, especially since it doesn't take into account wind shear, which is an important parameter when it comes to supercell development etc. 

#50shadesofVan