Pattern Change Update: Return of the Rains

Head east, and away from the cool waters of the Pacific to experience temperatures in the mid-upper 20's today and possible 30C tomorrow #YVR. (HRRR model simulation for late this afternoon 2M temps)

Head east, and away from the cool waters of the Pacific to experience temperatures in the mid-upper 20's today and possible 30C tomorrow #YVR. (HRRR model simulation for late this afternoon 2M temps)

Enjoy this weekend Vancouver, because I have high confidence that this will be the warmest temperatures you'll experience for the next 8-9 months or so (unless of course you're planning a trip to Billings, Oregon.) Yeah, temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow evening have the potential to approach 30C for some, quite incredible for the end of September. 

Last post I discussed these impending changes in detail, but the take home message is this: Vancouver, you're likely to see the most rain this week since at least April 16th and 17th of this year.

Wow, you've had it good, eh?

First on the agenda, a week and dying trough will approach from the west bringing isolated showers, possibly totalling to a couple mm's for Monday.

The Appetizer

Approaching trough modelled by the UW-WRF 12KM GFS

Approaching trough modelled by the UW-WRF 12KM GFS

As stated on Wednesday, it was likely another low would track well to our north and impact Haida Gwaii with the strongest winds and this solution seems most probable.

Any location highlighted in red below, however, could experience wind gusts between 80-90 km/hr Tuesday/Wednesday. I must mention this is the most typical low track for fall/winter seasons and won't always get a mention since the most damaging of winds stay well to the north of the South Coast and the Pacific Northwest. It's only noteworthy because of the pattern change.

Precipitation Amounts

  • Currently general amounts of 20-40 mm looks probable for areas not in some sort of a rain shadow, but orographic uplift is clearly having an influence of which regions could be in for some heavier rains (see model below). 
  • Areas more susceptible to heavy rain could see in excess of 80 mm this week. 
GLOBAL GFS model indicated approximately 30 mm of rain (1.2 inches) for YVR. North Shore generally could see approximately double these amounts. 

GLOBAL GFS model indicated approximately 30 mm of rain (1.2 inches) for YVR. North Shore generally could see approximately double these amounts. 

Q: Any type of weather you want covered on this blog? Or a more international focus when the weather is slow? Your typical wind, rain, and snowfall events will be covered in detail, along with focusing on niche markets such as winter sports (snowboarding, skiing, etc), surfing and the critical weather needed for these activities. Comment Below. 

#50shadesofVan