June 19th, 2076

It Rained. For about 4 hours last night while most Vancouverites were asleep, liquid water fell from the sky generally just accumulating a few mm of precipitation at the most.

 

As you can see below, typically YVR received 100 + mm of precipitation for May/June.

This year is different with just over 10 mm officially recorded for the duration of the past two months with very little/no precipitation for the next 7-10 days in the forecast

MAY/JUNE total (to date): ~12 mm for YVR  

Fire Risk June 18th:

 

Extreme fire risk for southern Vancouver Island and regions such as Squamish and Hope and Chilliwack. 

Did these recent rains have any appreciable impact on the situation?

In the short-term, yes. Take a look at a fire risk map this afternoon. although still some extreme sections on Southern Vancouver Island, the fire risk for the Sunshine Coast and the lower mainland has temporarily dropped to moderate/high, but by next weekend will rebound to high/extreme once again. 

Fire Risk: June 19th

 

The River Situation

Record-low river & stream levels on Vancouver Island indicating an unprecedented lack of snow runoff and drought conditions. Take a glance at the red line charting into unprecedented territory when compared to the last 20 years. Simply unbelievable. 

Another Example:

Current Snow Pillows at elevation on Vancouver Island:

There is no snow at high elevation in these regions, which typically still has 1-1.5 metres judging by the graphic below:

Central Vancouver Island (courtesy BC Govt)

Central Vancouver Island (courtesy BC Govt)

Southern Vancouver Island (Courtesy BC Govt)

Southern Vancouver Island (Courtesy BC Govt)

A Look Ahead (not great news!)

1. First let's try something irresponsible. Notoriously, global weather models exaggerate  precipitation along the B.C. coast, as meteorologists have known about this little hyperbole for many years. 

GEM/GFS 10 day precipitation outlook for the South Coast:

IT'S SCARY THAT THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE.

Grey/white colors indicate little to no precipitation over the next 10 days, and likely some stations in BC won't record a drop of rain through the end of the month. 

 

There's some talk about a heat wave developing over the next 7-10 days for the South Coast on social media, but does this carry any sort of clout?

500 upper level patterns are typically some of the most predictable parts of long term weather forecasting; anything above 5800 metres for this height level is significant summer warmth for CYVR and over 5900 metres can be record-breaking and has the potential to bring 30+ C temps closer to the coast. As you can see below, in June, typically 580's are the absolute maximum levels of height.

This paired with an offshore thermal trough can produce temperatures even into the mid 30's, and low confidence one will form late next week; stay tuned

GFS/EURO models still have great discrepancies for the strength of the upper level ridge, but regardless HIGH CONFIDENCE Canada day is Warm and dry for the south Coast

BLOB UPDATE:

1) BLOB (Sea surface temperature anomaly) is still very much alive and well, and even some upwelling is noticeable around Tofino with the positioning of a persistent ridge of high pressure, so if you're surfing you'll definitely need a wet-suit (you'll encounter chilly waters!)

   Cheers!